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Strategy: SNG: Sit and Go Tournaments

How high is the Variance for SnG's?

by shakin65

1 2 3 4 5

Case 4: Break Even Player

Player D: $11 Speed
Sample size >1,000 SnG's
ROI: 0%.
Spread of his ITM finishes: 11% first, second and third in each case.

WHAT VARIANCE SHOULD A PLAYER EXPECT WITH 500 SnG's?

45% probability that his ROI is negative.
44% probability that his ROI is positive.
45% probability that he will experience an OOTM series of 14 SnG's or more.
13% probability that he will have an ITM series of 7 SnG's or more.
70% probability that his lowest bankroll balance will be 14 buy-ins down or worse.

WHAT VARIANCE SHOULD A PLAYER EXPECT WITH 1,000 SnG's?

44% probability that his ROI is negative.
41% probability that his ROI is positive.
70% probability that he will experience an OOTM series of 14 SnG's or more.
10% probability that he will experience an OOTM series of 20 SnG's or more.
25% probability that he will have an ITM series of 7 SnG's or more.
76% probability that his lowest bankroll balance will be 15 buy-ins down or worse.

WHAT VARIANCE SHOULD A PLAYER EXPECT WITH 3,000 SnG's?

37% probability that his ROI is negative.
36% probability that his ROI is positive.
92% probability that he will experience an OOTM series of 15 SnG's or more.
28% probability that he will experience an OOTM series of 20 SnG's or more.
58% probability that he will have an ITM series of 7 SnG's or more.
86% probability that his lowest bankroll balance will be 15 buy-ins down or worse.

1 2 3 4 5

Next article: How to Play Double or Nothing Tournaments

Comments (18)

Write a comment

#1 mouse89, 10 Nov 08 17:15

#2 Bedoze, 22 Nov 08 04:02

It is interesting to see the numbers but there should be some explanation along for the ones that don't like numbers that much.

I see that a bigger volume is surely the best for the profitable players! For the ones breaking even not so good.. so they should work on their game.

#3 danutz123, 24 Jun 09 12:45

WHAT ABOUT DON S&Gs? Certainly lower variance, nicht wahr?

#4 Tim64, 20 Oct 09 00:56

The only issue I see is that we don't know which case we fall into. We don't know whether we're a 10% ROI player or 13% or whatever. We only know this once we've played 3000 sngs or so. And if we've played that many we already will have experienced variance. If we haven't, we won't know if we're in a variance period if we are doing badly or if we are just a player with a low ROI...

#5 oFISHnCHIPSo, 26 Oct 09 22:47

Want to see variance: look me up: Syko_21 on Stars!

#6 oFISHnCHIPSo, 26 Oct 09 22:49

April thru June - awesome!
July thru October - about as bad as it possibly could get, considering my finishing positions and Top Shark Rating.

#7 oFISHnCHIPSo, 26 Oct 09 22:50

Look at May, and then look at October, hahaha

#8 excelgeo, 11 Nov 09 14:57

so you should be aiming for win more than being ITM

#9 stevegold87, 25 Dec 09 03:59

This article is so so, as someone said it is like a bunch of number throw out there without any like explaination or logic behind it...

#10 paukuk, 15 Jan 10 16:01

I agree with PPL. An explanation would be pretty handy in here.

#11 Koshburger, 10 Feb 10 03:31

#12 Arthibald1, 05 May 10 18:17

WHAT VARIANCE SHOULD A PLAYER EXPECT WITH 3,000 SnG's?

"37% probability that his ROI is negative.
36% probability that his ROI is positive."

There is only a tiny chance that ROI is exactly even, not 27% as this suggests.
This is just WRONG!!!!!

#13 SkamanVN, 08 May 10 10:33

How do they calculate that? is there a method to do it?
I am at 13.8% ROI with 12%#1, 15%#2, 13%#3 after 250 SNG.
What would be the variance for 500 SNG, for 1,000 SNG??
Also, how to take into account the improvment of the game? we surely/hopefully don't play the same after 200 SNG and after 1,000.

#14 shakin65, 10 May 10 13:11

Not sure if it still exists, but I used a prog from a well respected 2+2 poster to run those calculations: RVGs ROI Simulator.

And it does not calculate any improvements of heros game.

#15 laimvai, 11 Jun 10 16:25

You need atleast 20K games to know your estimate ROI.

#16 MikeAK47, 14 Sep 10 00:27

Yep, 20K for sure, guys posting on Forum saying, wow my ROI is 40% after 200 SNGs, should I turn pro?

Hahaha they make me chuckle so much.

#17 CRI4BRA, 29 Dec 10 19:22

by "probability that his lowest bankroll balance will be 15 buy-ins down or worse"

you meab that if he roll on 100 buy in, the stat shows the probability that
a) he will be at 85 buy ins at some point - lowest

b )he will have only 15 buy ins starting from 100 buy ins at some point

please clarify
thanks

#18 Malamir, 31 Jan 11 19:34

I recently experience 7 out of the money SNG's and I hurt like hell. I see you are referring to 14 OOTM SNG's. Why you chose 14?

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Article Contents

page 1
- Introduction
page 2
- Case 1
page 3
- Case 2
page 4
- Case 3
page 5
- Case 4: Break Even Player

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