Introduction

In this article

How high is the variance?
Four examples of variance

Variance is an expression often used in relation to downswings. It's a synonym for the longer-term appearance of the improbable, the apparent deviation from the probabilities.

Especially with SnG's, you often hear the question: How high is the variance? This is the question with which the following article will deal. As benchmark, we'll use the ROI (Return on Investment). It shows in four definite examples what kind of variance you could be faced with, while having a given ROI and sample size.

Case 1

Player A: $11 Speed
Sample size >1,000 SnG's
ROI: 9%.
Spread of his ITM finishes: 12% for first, second and third in each case.

WHAT VARIANCE SHOULD A PLAYER EXPECT WITH 500 SnG's

13% probability to break even or finish worse.
50% probability of getting a ROI of 9% or better.
20% probability that he will experience an OOTM series of 14 SnG's or more.
22% probability that he will have an ITM series of 7 SnG's or more.
30% probability that his lowest bankroll balance will be 14 buy-ins down or worse.

WHAT VARIANCE SHOULD A PLAYER EXPECT WITH 1,000 SnG's

5% probability to break even or finish worse.
51% probability of getting a ROI of 9% or better.
24% probability that he will experience an OOTM series of 15 SnG's or more.
40% probability that he will have an ITM series of 7 SnG's or more.
30% probability that his lowest bankroll balance will be 15 buy-ins down or worse.

WHAT VARIANCE SHOULD A PLAYER EXPECT WITH 3,000 SnG's?

0.4% probability to break even or finish worse.
50% probability of getting a ROI of 9% or better.
58% probability that he will experience an OOTM series of 15 SnG's or more.
78% probability that he will have an ITM series of 7 SnG's or more.
30% probability that his lowest bankroll balance will be 15 buy-ins down or worse.

Case 2

Player B: $11 Speed
Sample size >1.000 SnG's
ROI: 13.6%.
Spread of his ITM finishes: 13% first, 12% second and third respectively.

WHAT VARIANCE SHOULD A PLAYER EXPECT WITH 500 SnG's?

4% probability to break even or finish worse.
53% probability of getting a ROI of 13% or better.
17% probability that he will experience an OOTM series of 14 SnG's or more.
26% probability that he will have an ITM series of 7 SnG's or more.
18% probability that his lowest bankroll balance will be 14 buy-ins down or worse.

WHAT VARIANCE SHOULD A PLAYER EXPECT WITH 1,000 SnG's?

0.5% probability to break even or finish worse.
55% probability of getting a ROI of 13% or better.
30% probability that he will experience an OOTM series of 14 SnG's or more.
45% probability that he will have an ITM series of 7 SnG's or more.
18% probability that his lowest bankroll balance will be 14 buy-ins down or worse.

WHAT VARIANCE SHOULD A PLAYER EXPECT WITH 3,000 SnG's?

0.01% probability to get a ROI of 2% or worse.
58% probability of getting a ROI of 13% or better.
50% probability that he will experience an OOTM series of 15 SnG's or more.
83% probability that he will have an ITM series of 7 SnG's or more.
18% probability that his lowest bankroll balance will be 14 buy-ins down or worse.

Case 3

Player C: $11 Speed
Sample size >1,000 SnG's
ROI: 4.5%.
Spread of his ITM finishes: 11% first, 12% for second and third respectively.

WHAT VARIANCE SHOULD A PLAYER EXPECT WITH 500 SnG's?

32% probability to break even or finish worse.
52% probability of getting a ROI of 4% or better.
35% probability that he will experience an OOTM series of 14 SnG's or more.
18% probability that he will have an ITM series of 7 SnG's or more.
47% probability that his lowest bankroll balance will be 14 buy-ins down or worse.

WHAT VARIANCE SHOULD A PLAYER EXPECT WITH 1,000 SnG's?

24% probability to break even or finish worse.
54% probability of getting a ROI of 4% or better.
57% probability that he will experience an OOTM series of 14 SnG's or more.
34% probability that he will have an ITM series of 7 SnG's or more.
53% probability that his lowest bankroll balance will be 15 buy-ins down or worse.

WHAT VARIANCE SHOULD A PLAYER EXPECT WITH 3,000 SnG's?

11% probability to break even or finish worse.
57% probability of getting a ROI of 4% or better.
82% probability that he will experience an OOTM series of 15 SnG's or more.
73% probability that he will have an ITM series of 7 SnG's or more.
56% probability that his lowest bankroll balance will be 15 buy-ins down or worse.

Case 4: Break Even Player

Player D: $11 Speed
Sample size >1,000 SnG's
ROI: 0%.
Spread of his ITM finishes: 11% first, second and third in each case.

WHAT VARIANCE SHOULD A PLAYER EXPECT WITH 500 SnG's?

45% probability that his ROI is negative.
44% probability that his ROI is positive.
45% probability that he will experience an OOTM series of 14 SnG's or more.
13% probability that he will have an ITM series of 7 SnG's or more.
70% probability that his lowest bankroll balance will be 14 buy-ins down or worse.

WHAT VARIANCE SHOULD A PLAYER EXPECT WITH 1,000 SnG's?

44% probability that his ROI is negative.
41% probability that his ROI is positive.
70% probability that he will experience an OOTM series of 14 SnG's or more.
10% probability that he will experience an OOTM series of 20 SnG's or more.
25% probability that he will have an ITM series of 7 SnG's or more.
76% probability that his lowest bankroll balance will be 15 buy-ins down or worse.

WHAT VARIANCE SHOULD A PLAYER EXPECT WITH 3,000 SnG's?

37% probability that his ROI is negative.
36% probability that his ROI is positive.
92% probability that he will experience an OOTM series of 15 SnG's or more.
28% probability that he will experience an OOTM series of 20 SnG's or more.
58% probability that he will have an ITM series of 7 SnG's or more.
86% probability that his lowest bankroll balance will be 15 buy-ins down or worse.