How high is the Variance for SnG's?
by shakin65
Case 2
Player B: $11 Speed
Sample size >1.000 SnG's
ROI: 13.6%.
Spread of his ITM finishes: 13% first, 12% second and third respectively.
| WHAT VARIANCE SHOULD A PLAYER EXPECT WITH 500 SnG's? |
4% probability to break even or finish worse.
53% probability of getting a ROI of 13% or better.
17% probability that he will experience an OOTM series of 14 SnG's or more.
26% probability that he will have an ITM series of 7 SnG's or more.
18% probability that his lowest bankroll balance will be 14 buy-ins down or worse.
| WHAT VARIANCE SHOULD A PLAYER EXPECT WITH 1,000 SnG's? |
0.5% probability to break even or finish worse.
55% probability of getting a ROI of 13% or better.
30% probability that he will experience an OOTM series of 14 SnG's or more.
45% probability that he will have an ITM series of 7 SnG's or more.
18% probability that his lowest bankroll balance will be 14 buy-ins down or worse.
| WHAT VARIANCE SHOULD A PLAYER EXPECT WITH 3,000 SnG's? |
0.01% probability to get a ROI of 2% or worse.
58% probability of getting a ROI of 13% or better.
50% probability that he will experience an OOTM series of 15 SnG's or more.
83% probability that he will have an ITM series of 7 SnG's or more.
18% probability that his lowest bankroll balance will be 14 buy-ins down or worse.
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