How high is the Variance for SnG's?
by shakin65
Case 1
Player A: $11 Speed
Sample size >1,000 SnG's
ROI: 9%.
Spread of his ITM finishes: 12% for first, second and third in each case.
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WHAT VARIANCE SHOULD A PLAYER EXPECT WITH 500 SnG's |
13% probability to break even or finish worse.
50% probability of getting a ROI of 9% or better.
20% probability that he will experience an OOTM series of 14 SnG's or more.
22% probability that he will have an ITM series of 7 SnG's or more.
30% probability that his lowest bankroll balance will be 14 buy-ins down or worse.
| WHAT VARIANCE SHOULD A PLAYER EXPECT WITH 1,000 SnG's |
5% probability to break even or finish worse.
51% probability of getting a ROI of 9% or better.
24% probability that he will experience an OOTM series of 15 SnG's or more.
40% probability that he will have an ITM series of 7 SnG's or more.
30% probability that his lowest bankroll balance will be 15 buy-ins down or worse.
| WHAT VARIANCE SHOULD A PLAYER EXPECT WITH 3,000 SnG's? |
0.4% probability to break even or finish worse.
50% probability of getting a ROI of 9% or better.
58% probability that he will experience an OOTM series of 15 SnG's or more.
78% probability that he will have an ITM series of 7 SnG's or more.
30% probability that his lowest bankroll balance will be 15 buy-ins down or worse.
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