How high is the Variance for SnG's?
by shakin65
Case 3
Player C: $11 SpeedSample size >1,000 SnG's
ROI: 4.5%.
Spread of his ITM finishes: 11% first, 12% for second and third respectively.
| WHAT VARIANCE SHOULD A PLAYER EXPECT WITH 500 SnG's? |
32% probability to break even or finish worse.
52% probability of getting a ROI of 4% or better.
35% probability that he will experience an OOTM series of 14 SnG's or more.
18% probability that he will have an ITM series of 7 SnG's or more.
47% probability that his lowest bankroll balance will be 14 buy-ins down or worse.
| WHAT VARIANCE SHOULD A PLAYER EXPECT WITH 1,000 SnG's? |
24% probability to break even or finish worse.
54% probability of getting a ROI of 4% or better.
57% probability that he will experience an OOTM series of 14 SnG's or more.
34% probability that he will have an ITM series of 7 SnG's or more.
53% probability that his lowest bankroll balance will be 15 buy-ins down or worse.
| WHAT VARIANCE SHOULD A PLAYER EXPECT WITH 3,000 SnG's? |
11% probability to break even or finish worse.
57% probability of getting a ROI of 4% or better.
82% probability that he will experience an OOTM series of 15 SnG's or more.
73% probability that he will have an ITM series of 7 SnG's or more.
56% probability that his lowest bankroll balance will be 15 buy-ins down or worse.
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