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Strategy: Push or Fold in Heads-up
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Strategy: SNG: Sit and Go Tournaments

Push or Fold in Heads-up

by PokerStrategy.com



2.2. Results

The results in the following three charts are rounded to one decimal place and segmented like this:
First off there are 4 individual charts for the different types of hands with which a push is possible: pocket pairs, Ax, Kx and connectors + one-gappers.

In the different columns you then find the value which S, the smaller stack in BB, must not exceed for a push to be +EV for a respective opponent calling range.

With all cards, except the pocket pairs, it is also differentiated between suited and offsuited. Logically, a suited hand has a higher value in the chart than the offsuit version.

The different calling ranges are

  • (SV)
    A "Super-Villain" who only calls if his call is +EV.
  • (15%)
    A tighter villian who calls with the following range: 44+, A8+, A5s+, KQ, KJs
    A hand of this range is held by Villain with about 15% probability.
  • (22%)
    A looser Villain who calls with the following range: 33+, A5+, A2s+, KT+, K9s+, QTs+
    A hand of this range is held by Villain with about 22% probability.
  • (29%)
    A very loose Villain who calls with the following range: 33+, A2+, K9+, K7s+, QT+, Q9s+, JTs
    A hand of this range is held by Villain with about 29% probability.

The category (SV) is thus the worst case scenarios so to speak. In reality, it won't happen though as our opponent doesn't know our cards. Still we should regard this category as lowest limit for our push: If it is even +EV against this calling range, it's certainly so against every others as well.

For the blank cells the push is +EV regardless of the stack size (S can have any value). From this results that Hero has a win probability of greater or equal than 50% against Villain's calling range in these situations (compare with notice near the end of chapter 2.1).



Pocket Pairs
Hero (SV) (15%) (22%)
(29%)
22
24.2 42.6 38.6
39.6
33
33.1
45.3
49.4
 62.4
44
41.3
61.9
80.3
 214.0
55
50.0
80.8
236.7
 
66
58.1
154.3
   
77
67.9
1050.7
   
88
72.2
     
99
97.4
     
TT
122.9
     
JJ
155.1
     
QQ
231.0
     
KK
454.0
     
AA
       


A-High Hands
Hero (SV)
(15%) (22%) (29%)
  offsuit
suited offsuit
suited offsuit
suited offsuit suited
A2 23.1
29.6
28.8
36.4
26.1
35.8 27.0
42.8
A3
24.7
31.7
29.4
37.2
27.5
38.2
29.3
48.2
A4
26.5
33.8
30.7
39.1
29.3
41.4
32.3
56.2
A5
28.8
36.6
32.6
42.2
32.4
46.9
38.2
75.0
A6
28.6
35.9
31.8
40.9
32.9
48.0
39.9
81.7
A7
31.9
40.1
34.5
45.3
41.9
68.0
62.1
251.0
A8
36.0
45.4
40.4
54.3
60.2
127.2
149.1
 
A9
41.3
52.6
54.8
80.8
125.1
     
AT
53.6
70.0
111.4
268.4
       
AJ
68.6
92.0
1015
         
AQ
96.8
137.5
           
AK
168.9
277.8
           


K-High Hands
Hero (SV)
(15%) (22%) (29%)
  offsuit
suited offsuit
suited offsuit
suited offsuit suited
K2 10.4
14.4
21.8
26.8
14.9
18.5
12.4
15.9
K3
11.2
14.7
22.2
27.3
15.4
19.2
12.9
16.6
K4
11.9
15.6
23.0
28.4
16.0
20.1
13.5
17.6
K5
12.8
16.7
23.9
29.7
16.5
20.7
14.2
18.5
K6
13.8
18.0
24.8
31.0
17.1
21.7
14.8
19.6
K7
14.8
19.2
25.4
31.9
17.6
22.4
15.3
20.5
K8
15.7
20.4
25.3
31.6
17.9
22.9
15.9
21.5
K9
18.4
24.4
27.9
35.5
20.0
26.2 19.4
27.5
KT
23.0
31.9
32.2
42.2
25.9
35.9
29.4
49.6
KJ
25.9
36.8
34.7
46.4
33.2
50.2 40.6
88.2
KQ
29.9
43.8
43.7
61.6
47.6
87.8
70.9
587.8


Connectors + 1-Gaper
Hero (SV)
(15%) (22%) (29%)
  offsuit
suited offsuit
suited offsuit
suited offsuit suited
54
2.1
2.9
24.6
20.2
16.2
20.3
12.6
16.0
64
2.1
2.9
23.7
28.9
15.5
19.3
12.0
15.1
65
2.5
3.6
25.9
32.0
17.0
21.5
13.3
17.2
75
2.6
3.8
24.9
30.6
16.4
20.5
12.7
16.2
76
3.2
4.7
27.3
34.2
18.1
23.1
14.1
18.4
86
3.6
5.0
25.9
32.0
17.5
22.2
13.5
17.5
87
4.2
6.2
28.0
35.2
19.2
24.8
14.8
19.5
97
4.8
6.6
27.5
34.4
18.4
23.6
14.0
18.2
98
5.6
8.1
28.9
36.5
20.3
26.5
15.4
20.4
T8
6.6
9.2
28.7
36.2
19.7
25.6
15.0
19.8
T9
7.9
11.7
31.9
41.1
21.9
29.0
16.5
22.1
J9
9.4
13.3
30.7
39.3
21.0
27.7
15.7
20.9
JT
12.0
18.5
35.8
47.6
24.1
32.7
18.6
25.8
QT
15.4
22.4
34.0
44.6
23.7
32.2
19.8
27.9
QJ
16.9
25.2
35.1
46.5
25.7
35.7
24.1
36.4


Instruction on using the charts:

We have a hand in the small blind and don't really know if we are able to push with it +EV. We guess the opponent's calling range. If we're unable to do that, we use the value of the column (SV) and compare this value with the value of the actual stack S expressed in BB. If S is smaller, we can push +EV.

The actual stack in BB is as usual the smaller one of both stacks prior to paying the blinds.

Example:
Our stack is 150,000, the opponent's 200,000. We pay the SB of 4,000, the opponent the BB of 8,000. This means that the actual stack S in BB is 150,000/8,000 = 18.75.

We receive A6o. We are unable to evaluate the opponent and we are under time pressure, so we take the value 28.6 of the column (SV). As S in BB is smaller than 28.6, we're able to push +EV.

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