NL tournament: your opponent's hand ranges
by HoRRoR
2. Typical ranges and examples
2.6% QQ+, AK
4.2% JJ+,AQ+
8.7% 99+, AT+ KQ+
18.6% 66+, A6+, KT+, QJ+
32.7% 44+, A2+, K6+, Q9+, JT+
40.9% 22+, A2+, K2+, Q8+, J9+
48.1% 22+, A2+, K2+, Q5+, J7+, T9+
Ranges like 0% and 100% are almost impossible
Example hand:
Blinds (200/400), 4-handed
CO 100 Chips
BU 3200 Chips
SB 8000 Chips
BB 1000 Chips
CO folds, BU folds, SB ?
Here you should assume that the SB will push 100% of hands. But experience shows that the SB will often fold hands like 32o or 72o.
Of course, it's not possible to guess the range exactly, but starting from the ranges 0% and 100%, we know that the right value can only lie in one direction. So start by assuming a range of 90-95% instead of 100%.
2.1 Was the range correct?
Sometimes, you might give an opponent a range, for example: any ace, any king, any pair. You call his push since you believe yourself to be ahead against this range, all in all. And then he shows aces. Many players are frustrated by this since they believe they have made an incorrect assertion about that opponent's range.
But like the name says, you are guessing a range of hands; all the hands that you believe this opponent might make some move or other with. In single cases, the current hand might fall into the higher or lower end of the range. If he shows a strong hand, that doesn't mean that you made an error of judgment, only that, in this single case, his hand belonged to one of the better hands in his range. But in this limit, he will have these as often as hands in the lower end.
A mistake only occurred when he showed a hand that you did not include in the range. If you believe his calling range to be any ace, any king, or any pair and he calls a push with 84o, then your assessment would've been incorrect.
3. Adjusting your own range to the opponent
In some cases, it is recommendable to fit your own range to the opponent's. PokerStove is helpful for seeing how various starting hands fare against a particular range.
Example:
Hero is in SB
Villain is in BB
Villain has a calling range of 4.2% (JJ+,AQ+), so he's a very tight player.
ATo has an equity of 26% against these hands together.
87s, however, has an equity of 32.4%.
It follows that pushing against such a player with 87s holds more chance of success than pushing with ATo.
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