The -$EV-Push
by steinek
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Introduction
In this article- Why you should sometimes deviate from the ICM
- The factors that influence your pushing range
- How to react to -$EV-Pushes
"It was just 64o, but I just had to push in that situation" - "This hand obviously isn't in the Nash range, but I'm probably not going to find a better spot" - "52s is good enough, since I'm about to be in the BB"
You probably read such arguments on a regular basis in the Hand Evaluation Forum. The concept behind this line of thought is the -$EV-Push.
It can be quite a shock when you first see the kinds of hands you're supposed to be going all-in with, but it's something no successful SnG player can avoid. This article will introduce you to the -$EV-Push, show you when you can make such a push and discuss the factors that influence your pushing range.
We will conclude with a few thoughts on how to react to -$EV-Pushes and the possibility of the -$EV-Call.
What is a -$EV-Push?
As the name suggests, a -$EV-Push is a push made with a hand that should be folded (for example according to the SnG Wizard).
You can see that your equity, as calculated by the Independent Chip Model (ICM), sinks when you compare your $EV before the start of the hand to your average $EV after playing the hand.
Why should you purposely enter a -$EV situation?
You may not see any reason to make a -$EV-Push at first, but there is one reason why you should not always blindly rely on the $EV of a given action as delivered by the ICM. And this reason is that the ICM is ultimately nothing more than a model.
As you know, this model calculates what each player's share of the prize pool would be if all the money in the prize pool was paid out at this point to each remaining player according to stack size. Factors like blind size, the strength of the individual players remaining in the tournament and 'future game' elements are not taken into account.
This causes the ICM to overestimate/underestimate your actual EV at times. This means it's up to you to analyze the situation and decide whether or not you're in the right spot for a push that is -$EV according to the ICM. And this task is far from easy. The following discussion of the individual factors that influence this decision will show you what to pay attention to when considering this option.
When can you make a -$EV-Push?
You should always consider and weigh the following factors against each other when considering a -$EV-Push:
- Your stack size
- Your hand
- Your position
- Opponents' stack sizes
- Reads on your opponents
- The number of opponents
- The blind structure
- The 'future game'
Your stack size
Your greatest strength in comparison with the weaker players is that you have integrated the concept of the loose and direct push into your game. This allows you to win a lot of chips without seeing a showdown and is the reason why you are not playing a game of luck.
But a loose direct push can only work when your stack allows you to generate a certain amount of fold equity (FE). If, for example, you only have 3 BBs left in your stack and go all-in, the player in the BB will always be getting 2:4.5, or 1:2.25, pot odds and will hardly be able to fold any hand.
This is why you should always do your best to keep your stack from falling below 4 BBs. It follows that a -$EV-Push is usually only an option when your stack is between 3.5 and 6 BBs in size, as then you are endangered by the Blinds and Antes into losing your FE.
Full Tilt Poker $12 No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (6 handed)
Stacks
Hero (t2030)
MP (t1437)
Cutoff (t2553)
Button (t3140)
SB (t1500)
BB (t2840)
After paying the next round of blinds you will only have 1730 in chips remaining and still be more or less in the same position you are in now. You are under no pressure to deviate from the Nash range.
Full Tilt Poker $12 No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (6 handed)
Stacks
Hero (t2030)
MP (t1437)
Cutoff (t2553)
Button (t3140)
SB (t1500)
BB (t2840)
After the paying the next round of blinds you will only have 1580 in chips remaining, a good 5 BBs. You can still generate a fair amount of FE against most of the remaining players, since 5 BBs are usually a fair portion of any player's stack in this phase of a SnG. You are not under heavy pressure to push.
On the other hand, your stack will be less than 4 BBs after the next round of blinds or the next blind increase, which means you are in a much less comfortable position than in the previous example. In this situation you should push with a hand or two not found within the Nash range.
Full Tilt Poker $12 No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (6 handed)
Stacks
Hero (t2030)
MP (t1437)
Cutoff(t2553)
Button (t3140)
SB (t1500)
BB (t2840)
If you go through the blinds in this case without playing a single hand, your stack will have fallen to t1430, or apprpx. 3.5 BBs. This means the player in the BB will always get 2.5:5, or exactly 1:2, pot odds to call your push.
If he can afford it and has a good understanding of the game he will make very loose calls, a situation you absolutely want to avoid. Pushing from UTG with a hand not found in the Nash range is often the lesser evil. In fact, sometimes you should deviate from the Nash range quite drastically.
Your hand
This is not an intrinsic part of a -$EV-Push, but it's worth mentioning to help you get a better understanding of the big picture. Of course, you should always have a hand that has at least a half-decent equity if you do get called, which is why it's worth taking a look at your equity vs. calling ranges.
Party Poker $11 No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed)
Stacks
Hero (t2132)
BU (t7937)
SB (t4855)
BB (t5076)
According to Nash you can push with the following range: 22+ A2s+ A4o+ K8s+ KTo+ Q9s+ QJo J9s+ T9s 98s (25.8%). But this is much too tight. As we said in Example 3, you don't want to get in the very uncomfortable situation of not having enough chips to generate any FE and should do whatever you can to avoid this. Of course, putting it all in with any two isn't going to help you much, either.
32o gives you close to 30% equity against a 20% calling range; 76s gives you a good 36.5% equity. Against a 50% calling range these two hands give you 30.5% and a good 39% equity, respectively. As you can see, there is a big difference between the two, even though neither one is in the Nash range.
The logical implication is that you should also think in terms of ranges when it comes to -$EV-Pushes and play beyond the two extremes of either "100% according to Nash" or "Throw it all in out of sheer desperation." The transition between the two is gradual; once again, it's up to you to develop a sense for these changes.
Your position
Or rather, when will you have to pay the next BB? Compare the BB's equity before and after the hand in the Nash Trainer and you will see that he always loses equity.
For example, with 5 players remaining, each with t4000, the BB loses 1% of his share of the prize pool on average, something you should see with the help of the Nash Trainer and take to heart. You can prevent this by taking the down blinds one more time before the BB makes it to you, which is why UTG is a popular position for making -$EV-Pushes.
On the other hand, when you push UTG you have the max. number of players after you and have the greatest risk of running into a better hand. The good players will also recognize your UTG -$EV-Pushes over time and adjust their calling ranges accordingly.
For this reason, you should not make all your -$EV-Pushes from UTG, but from the other positions as well. Start looking for a good spot when you know that the next round of blinds will be damaging. It's up to you to decide whether or not you are likely to find a better situation before the BB makes it back to you.
Opponents' stack sizes
Start by looking at the BB's stack. He is the one who will be getting the best odds, since he has paid the most so far. You have to ask yourself how much pressure you can put on him with your stack. If he is short-stacked, he will have to try his luck at the showdown; if he is deep-stacked, 5 BBs won't mean much to him and he will make rather loose calls.
You can do the most damage against a player with a stack approx. the same size as yours, the optimal size to target. Now it's time to look at the remaining players' stacks and ask yourself if any of them has a good reason to make a loose call.
You will usually get called by short stacks that can't fold a marginal hand to such good odds and big stacks that just want to see flops and don't like folding in general. Once again, in a best case scenario you will be facing an opponent with a stack approx. as large as yours.
Party Poker $11 No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed)
Stacks
Hero (t1986)
BU (t10214)
SB (t4930)
BB (t2870)
In this spot you can push 19.8% according to Nash.
Party Poker $11 No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed)
Stacks
Hero (t1986)
BU (t10214)
SB (t2870)
BB (t4930)
And now you should push 22.5%.
What this essentially means is that in the second situation you could even play a little bit looser than usual, but this is not advisable. The reason is the BB. He is getting the same odds in both situations, since your stack remains unchanged.
In Example 5 you are pushing against your closest rival and will be even in chips with him if you succeed. The player with t3000 will also have to think twice about going all-in against you, since he is practically guaranteed to be the bubble boy if he loses.
Reads on your opponents
Of course, just looking at the stack sizes doesn't tell you how much FE you have against a given opponent. You should always be collecting information on your opponents - having these reads is very important. Ask yourself the following questions when considering a -$EV-Push:
- Have I seen him make loose calls?
- Has he taken a long time to think about making an obvious call in the past? (Note: This may be due to multi-tabling)
- Has he not made odds calls in the past?
- How much respect does he show when a short stack pushes?
These are the factors that can influence your decision in one way or the other when you are in a borderline situation. You can't pay too much attention to what is going on when you aren't actively participating in the hand.
Party Poker $11 No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (5 handed)
Stacks
UTG (t5310)
Hero (t2010)
BU (t4740)
SB (t3925)
BB (t4015)
Pre-flop: UTG folds.
Your read on UTG: He doesn't seem to know what an odds call is and makes rather tight calls in general.
In this situation there is clearly no need to push out of sheer desperation, since you will be in a good spot in the very next hand. You will be able to raise first in and push against a tight caller.
There is no pressure to make a -$EV-Push in this spot.
Party Poker $11 No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (5 handed)
Stacks
UTG (t5310)
Hero (t2010)
BU (t4740)
SB (t3925)
BB (t4015)
Pre-flop: UTG folds.
A seemingly identical situation, but this time your read on UTG is that he likes to play; his fold can only be a mis-click or the result of an unexplainable phenomenon.
Be careful in this spot. You aren't UTG yet, but you can't expect to generate much FE against him should your next hand be a clear -$EV-Push. This is your last good chance for a -$EV-Push, since you will be in the BB again in the hand after that.
The number of opponents
As always, the more players you have after you, the tighter you should push. Your disadvantages at a full table are that you can't push with as many hands and that you still have a ways to go before you make it to the money. The advantages are that you don't have to post the blinds as often, which means you have more chances to pick up a good hand.
It follows that you should take your time, go through the blind orbit, and wait for a good spot to push when you are at a full (or nearly full) table and you have approx. 5 BBs in your stack, since, despite your stack, you can't be pushing too loosely from UTG.
And if opportunity refuses to knock, don't panic and push with any two from UTG. Even if your opponents only call with 10% of their hands, you will get called 57% of the time when you have eight players after you.
The blind structure
The two questions you should always ask yourself relating to the blind structure are: "When is the next increase in blinds?" and "How much is the next increase?"
The less time remaining until the next increase in blinds, the more willing you must be to take risks, since you only lose equity by playing passively with such high blinds.
This is especially important to remember when the next increase in blinds will cause you to lose your FE. These are situations in which you have to try to pick up some chips with a loose push.
Party Poker, $11 No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed)
Stacks
Hero (t1200)
CO (t4810)
BU (t3444)
SB (t7636)
BB (t2910)
The blinds will be increasing with the next hand. The next level at PartyPoker is 200/400. The next BB will cost you 1/3 of your stack before you are even dealt your cards. This is not a very appealing thought and you should try to avoid this situation by looking very loosely for a chance to at least pick up a few chips before the BB arrives.
'Very loosely' depends on a number of factors and this is always a case-by-case decision. One of the most important, if not most important, factors when playing at PartyPoker is this blind increase and the following blind level, which makes nearly everyone pretty short. The content of this article should be given special attention if you play there regularly.
Full Tilt Poker, $12 No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (5 handed)
Stacks
Hero (t1200)
CO (t3466)
BU (t2142)
SB (t4040)
BB (t2652)
In this example the blinds will only increase to 120/240, so you still have 5 BBs and will still have 3.5 BBs after paying this round's blinds, which means you can still generate FE in the next round if you find a good spot. You should certainly push with more hands than found in the Nash range in this spot, but with not nearly so many as in Example 9.
The 'future game'
This is a very important point to address and requires a very intense analysis of the situation. This becomes so complex that we can do little more in this article than point you in the right direction. Take the time to consider the following thoughts and use the many opportunities you have at PokerStrategy.com, such as the Hand Evaluation Forum, peer discussions, etc. to increase your understanding of this very complicated subject matter.
Always look at the players after you and their stacks. If you think you can generate FE with 3 BBs from the button or in a blind battle, you don't need to make a desperately loose push from UTG with 4.5 BBs.
If, on the other hand, you know that the players after you always call when you push from late position, you won't be able to avoid a showdown and can try your luck with somewhat looser pushes from earlier positions. You should also always look at the player to your right. How likely do you think it is that he will let you walk? The more likely you think this is, the less pressure you should feel to make a loose push from UTG.
Of course, more or less the same counts for the other players at the table. The more often they fold to you and your pushes, the more likely it is that you will find a spot for a profitable push and the less pressure you should feel to push all too loosely.
It's always important to look at the player in the BB and this is especially true when you are on the bubble. If you and one other player are the only two short stacks, you should try to push against his BB quite often, since this push has a two-sided advantage in the future game: You have more chips and he has less.
As a short-stack on the bubble you should always ask yourself how often two opponents will go all-in against each other before you go bust. Often, two players would be competing for nearly every hand, so that the chances of coming into the money simply by waiting it out is fairly high. You should not push too loosely in these situations.
You can also take another approach with -$EV-Pushes on the bubble and use them to take over the chip lead. You should, however, only do this when you have reason to believe your opponents are aware of the very tight calling ranges on the bubble and that you can make up for this lost $EV with future pushes. This is something you should keep in the back of your mind at the lower limits and only attempt in very carefully selected situations.
The future game plays a very important role in the battle for the blinds. Sometimes you should push from the SB with a hand that is slightly -$EV against a realistic calling range.
If, for example, the neighbour to your left has a slight chip lead over you and the blinds are very high, this is the hand that will determine which of you takes the lead over the other. If you win the pot now, you can make looser pushes against him in the future and can quickly make up this -$EV. If, on the other hand, you fold, you will have less FE against him in the future and will have to play tighter against him in the coming rounds. By not pushing now, you run the risk of falling behind.
To keep things simple we will assume that chips are not wandering back and forth across the table when you are not in the SB, as this saves us the strenuous task of differentiating between the various situations that arise with such action.
No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (5 handed)
StacksUTG (t4000)
CO (t4000)
BU (t4000)
Hero (t4000)
BB (t4000)
The Nash range from the SB is 73.8% and your hand is not within this range.
You fold. You will be in the same situation again when you are the SB in the next round.
You push even though your hand is not within the Nash range. This is, of course, a loss, but it means you will be able to profitably push with 76.8% during the next blind orbit, whereas you would only be able to profitably push with 69.8% during the next blind orbit if you let the BB walk. These marginal -$EV-spots can mean the difference of 10% in your pushing range in future orbits, which is worth a fair amount of chips.
All these examples should show that it is always up to you to decide whether or not you will be able to make up -$EV in future spots.
How should you react to -$EV-Pushes?
The better your opponents get, the more often you will encounter players who are also familiar with -$EV-Pushes and you will have to start thinking about how to react in these situations.
First and foremost, be attentive, and carefully make notes on who is actually making -$EV-Pushes. Not every push from UTG for approx. 5 BBs is a -$EV-Push...far from it. You should always assume your opponent has a hand when you are in the lower limits and don't have a read.
If you do have the read and know your opponent makes -$EV-Pushes, the next step is putting him on a range. Does he only make barely -$EV-Pushes or does he arbitrarily throw all his chips in the middle? You should widen your calling range against him accordingly.
You can get a feel for how these ranges change by playing around with the SnG Wizard or PokerStrategy's own Equilator.
The fact that your opponent is making -$EV-Pushes is a sign that he also understands the concept of loose pushes and tight calls. You can steal more loosely against these opponents, since he is the type that prefers to raise first-in rather than call pushes. Of course, this is just a general read and you should always observe your opponents' play and look for verification before relying on this too heavily.
Should you also make -$EV-Calls?
There certainly are situations, in which you can make a -$EV-Call. This is possible for the same reason that you can make a -$EV-Push: The ICM is only a model and your actual $EV may differ, especially when the blinds are very high. These situations do, however, occur far less often and it's better to make one or two -$EV-Calls too few than too many.
The main difference between calling and pushing is that you are automatically all-in and have to win the showdown to profit. The a reason why you take so many factors into account and select your spots so carefully when you push is that you are trying to take full advantage of your FE. You don't have any FE when you call.
You will usually feel the need to make a -$EV-Call when you are very short and would either loose your FE by continuing to play passively, or already have no FE left at all. And once you are short-stacked, you are usually still under pressure even after you manage to double-up. This move can also be a good option when you are on the bubble.
This may seem absurd, since you know that the calling ranges are very tight on the bubble. But try playing around with our battle for the blinds example. Put yourself in the BB; the SB is a good regular and pushes into you. If he will have more in his stack than you, should you fold, there won't be much to laugh about for the rest of the bubble, since he will attack your BB every time and push much more often in general, which damns you to passive play.
Aside from hoping that you see good cards, you have two other ways out: Either you make one loose call and will be the chip leader if you win, which will give you the chance to make up for the lost $EV later (another advantage is also that your opponent will push against you less often in the future, which can be very valuable when you play against this opponent regularly), or you start making UTG -$EV-Pushes.
The regular will then be in the BB and will only make tight calls, since he is in a very comfortable position. UTG is also your only chance to act before him and may be your only chance to be the aggressor against him, should he be very aggressive himself.
These are things you should start thinking about if you are still in the lower limits, but they should not start influencing your game, since you will rarely be facing very good players in bubble situations and can usually count on your opponents to make stupid mistakes.
Conclusion
Now you know what a -$EV-Push is and why you should, at times, go against the ICM in certain situations. You also know which factors to pay attention to when you are in a borderline situation.
One common theme was found in many of the aspects we discussed: The pursuit of fold equity. If you're probably not going to get a good hand in time, you at least want to have the best possible chance of winning the pot without seeing a showdown. Don't push into shorties or big stacks too often and try to target and pressure the players who can do damage to your stack.
You should also consider how a push would change your overall position in the tournament and always collect reads on your opponents - every piece of information you have makes difficult decisions easier.
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