Independent Chip Model (ICM)
by Morgoth
1. Introduction
In this article- What is the ICM
- How do you use the ICM
- ICM programs and limitations
Imagine that you're on the bubble in the BB at a standard PartyPoker Sit and Go tournament. Blinds are 300/600.
CO 10000
BU 2000
SB 2000
BB 6000 (Hero)
The chipleader is banking on extreme aggression and is dominating the table with reckless all-in pushes. The CO pushes all-in, BU and SB fold. You estimate the handrange of the CO around 90% and have AK yourself.
Is now a dream situation for taking over the chip lead or should we fold our AKs with a heavy heart because of the risk of not getting ITM? What would you do? If it's a simple call for you, which other hands would you call and against which handrange would you fold AKs? If you tend toward the fold, how good must your hand be to call and how loose must the CO be so that you would call with AKs?
The ability to answer such questions correctly is the single most valuable skill for successful SnG play. You can be good in the early phases - but if you make the wrong decision in the endgame, you'll seldom win. And the honing of this skill which is the aim of this article.
1.1 Basics:
This is an advanced article on playing Sit and Go's in PartyPoker format at relatively high blinds (above 100/200). It builds on the basic knowledge from our SnG Beginner's articles and assumes that you're familiar with terms like bubble, fold equity, etc.
1.2 EV and $EV:
EV: (expected value) also called chip EV, is the number of chips you can expect to end up with, on average after a specific action. An action is +EV if it raises the EV.
$EV: this is the money value of the EV. An action is +$EV whenever it raises the $EV.
Note: since the EV and $EV are not linearly related (doubling the EV does not necessily double the $EV), there are actions which can be +EV but -$EV. These must be avoided since our aim is to maximize the $EV.
Note: since we are only interested in $EV in tournaments, this is usually the one we mean when we speak of EV. In this article, however, we will differentiate between EV and $EV.
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